The wave of unprecedented protests in the Arab world is likely to affect the solid ties between U.S. intelligence and authoritarian regimes in the region, created and developed to combat radical Islam. After removal of the regime of Ben Ali in Tunisia, Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak, and Yemen protests, U.S. intelligence finds it difficult to adapt to new realities in the Arab world.
“It is obvious that the first consequence is that the relationships built to fight al-Qaida and terrorism will come to an end”, said Bruce Riedel, a former CIA agent.
It is also the case of Omar Suleiman, ex-Vice President of Egypt during Hosni Mubarak reign, and former head of Egyptian intelligence. According to Riedel, it is unlikely that Suleiman’s successor will be as likely to cooperate with Washington.
“In Yemen, the intelligence service is hardly dealing with al-Qaida. At this point, they are concerned about their own survival and identity of the new leader”, said Riedel”. Al-Qaida fiefdom will be larger and more certain when all this will end. The United States and Europe will be exposed to greater threats”, he cautions.
Another U.S. official admitted, on condition of anonymity, that al-Qaida in Yemen benefits from the country’s issues, stressing however that the cooperation with the local secret services will not be halted.
“The services created to combat terrorism have the means to act unilaterally. Nobody should believe that the United States and its allies depend entirely on collaboration with other services to combat al-Qaida and terrorism” said the quoted official.
The wave of protests is seriously affecting the stability of Saudi Arabia as well, a key U.S. ally in the region.