The United States will surpass Saudi Arabia by 2020 and will become the world’s largest oil producer. At that time the U.S. economy will be almost independent of energy imports, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Constant production increase of oil extracted from compact rock formations will made the U.S the largest producer in the world by 2020, IEA shows in a report covering trends in the energy sector by 2035. New domestic sources will limit oil imports and will turn North America into a net exporter by 2030.
“The United States, which currently imports 20% of its energy needs, get closer to energy independence, in a development opposite to trends in most energy importing countries,” according to the IEA study.
U.S. domestic sources covered 83% of energy needs in the first six months, and for the entire current year it could register the highest percentage since 1991, according to the Department of Energy.
The advance of domestic production reduces the country’s dependence of imported oil and is protecting the economy from supply disruptions caused by external factors.
Global demand for oil is projected to increase to 99.7 million barrels per day in 2035 from 87.4 million barrels a day this year, according to the IEA, an organization which advises 28 industrialized countries, including the U.S., Germany and Japan.
Saudi Arabia produced 9.8 million barrels per day in October, according to Bloomberg data. U.S. production was 6.7 million barrels per day in the week ending Nov. 2, according to the Energy Department. U.S. develops oil reserves from compact rock formations, including the Bakken shale rock formation that stretches beneath several states. These oil resources are extracted by hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling.
Oil price on the international market will reach about $125 a barrel in 2035 from a level of about $108 per barrel for the Brent oil today.
Natural gas consumption will increase in the next period, supported by China, India and the Middle East. In the U.S., natural gas will surpass oil in the country’s energy mix by 2030, due to low prices and higher production, the IEA notes.
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