Physical liquidation of al-Qaida leader gives a short-term advantage to the U.S. President, not the certainty of a victory in 2012 elections, say American political analysts.
United States President, Barack Obama, started a month ago the race for re-election to the White House. Killing Osama bin Laden after the start of the election campaign is also a blow to his political opponents. “They can not blame the President anymore that he is too soft on terrorism”, said Sean Foreman, political science professor from Barry University at Miami Shores, Florida. “Obama decided to send American forces after Bin Laden (in Pakistan), and the high risk has paid off in full”, Foreman added.
The capture and killing of Osama bin Laden helps the democrat administration in Washington to be seen as “efficient and capable in combating the terrorism problem”, says David Lublin, professor of political science at American University in Washington.
Success with limited effects
Regarding the effects of the assassination of Osama bin Laden on Barack Obama’s chances of being re-elected in 2012, Sean Foreman suggests that there are no reasons for enthusiasm in the Democratic party. The killing of al-Qaida leader “is clearly a major moral victory for Obama’s administration and U.S. as a country. However, we must remember that George H.W. Bush had a high percentage of trust in 1991, 80%, after freeing Kuwait, but he lost the 1992 presidential elections, won by the Democratic candidate, Bill Clinton”, mentioned Foreman.
We’ll see whether the recent success in combating terrorism will have long-term electoral impact, said David Lublin. “I think most Americans understand that the fight against terrorism is a long time battle”, he added, insisting that an important message has been sent out: Americans remain committed and able to defend themselves, whether in power are Democrats or Republicans.
The state of economy
Obama has a rate of confidence of approximately 50% that in short term will definitely increase, believes Foreman. “But if unemployment rate and gasoline prices remain high in the next year, Obama will have difficulties to get a new mandate”, said the American professor from Barry University.
Sergio Bustos, political editor at the daily “Miami Herald”, recently said that the president started the race for a second term with a net advantage in front of his Republican rival. “The incumbent president always has an advantage. First of all, he benefits of a higher media exposure, whatever he does and wherever he goes, and even more – he initiates the electoral debates according to his agenda”, explains Bustos.